Publications

Global Minimum Tax and Profit Shifting
– with Petr Janský, Miroslav Palanský
– Revise & Resubmit in International Tax and Public Finance

We develop a methodology to decompose the tax revenue impact of the global minimum tax and quantify its potential impact on profit shifting. We apply it to 34 thousand multinational-country observations from tax returns, financial statements, and country-by-country reports of all multinationals active in Slovakia. We find that Slovak corporate tax revenues will increase by 4%, with half of the increase due to its minimum top-up taxes. The other half of the increase is corporate income tax on profits that will no longer be shifted out of the country. We expect the global minimum tax to target 49% of previously shifted profits.

Reforming Global Tax Governance: OECD and UN Paths to Effective and Participatory Tax Reform
– with Petr Janský, Miroslav Palanský, and Michal Parízek

Global tax governance has long struggled with ineffectiveness, as reflected in rising corporate tax avoidance that costs governments hundreds of billions of dollars annually. In response, the OECD/G20 advanced the most ambitious initiative to date — the global minimum tax under its Two-Pillar Solution — which began to take effect in 2024. In 2024, the United Nations launched negotiations on a parallel Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. Drawing on 13 semi-structured interviews and analysis of relevant documents, this report finds that while the OECD emphasises effectiveness, the UN prioritises participation. Neither forum currently ensures a reform process that is both effective and participatory, and future progress will depend on addressing this trade-off.

The Regulation of Illicit Financial Flows (RIFF) Dataset: A New World Map of 30-years of Financial Secrecy and Anti-Money Laundering Reforms
– with Daniel Haberly, Valentina Gullo, Tom Shipley, Miroslav Palanský, Robert Barrington

To assess the effectiveness of international efforts to combat illicit financial flows (IFFs), we need a map of how and when specific reforms have been implemented in key jurisdictions around the world over the past few decades. Here we introduce the largest and most detailed dataset to date of long-term change in the global IFF regulatory landscape – the Regulation of Illicit Flows (RIFF) dataset. Compiled with support from the GI ACE program, and assistance from the FSI team at the Tax Justice Network, the RIFF provides annual data on 23 regulatory indicators in 70 key jurisdictions, for 1990-2020.

Where do multinationals locate profits: Evidence from country-by-country reporting

In this paper, I exploit the OECD country-by-country reporting statistics to analyze the determinants behind the location of profits. I find that profit allocation is sensitive to both effective tax rates and geographical proximity, confirming the significance of these factors in MNEs’ tax planning strategies. Building on the work of Dharmapala and Hines (2009), this study also uncovers that MNEs are more likely to report profits to jurisdictions with superior governance quality, integrating both Global Governance Indicators and factors linked to financial secrecy. However, the findings indicate that tax haven jurisdictions exhibit a degree of reluctance when it comes to implementing recently introduced policies aimed at combating corruption and tax abuses.

Recent Works in Progress

Profit Shifting After BEPS & Global Minimum Tax Payers: Evidence from Administrative Data
with Petr Janský, Niels Johannesen, and Miroslav Palanský

Selection of slides is available here: “The End of Tax Avoidance by Multinationals?” (as part of the discussion at the FISC public hearing “The 2 Pillar framework in view of international developments and the EU-US relations“).

MNE Business Functions and Corporate Taxation: Evidence from micro CBCR
with Samuel Delpeuch, Felix Hugger, and Markéta Malá

The working paper based on aggregated data can be found here.